6E. EUR/USD. 7 JULY.
Greetings, traders. As promised, I make posts every day and I will start with yesterday’s results.
Analysis of yesterday’s analysis and signals:
I expected the market to be in a narrow intraday balance yesterday and then to move wider today, but it happened yesterday, which was nonetheless anticipated.
Yesterday I wrote, “Locally we are in the 1.1803–1.1970 balance phase under the pressure of the global seller. The volume that came out of Friday’s support has not yet been positioned to buy, so it’s too early to talk about an upward reversal within the local balance.”
The upside movement really didn’t follow, however it didn’t reach the level of our short 10 points.
The buy signal was as follows: “Buy 1.1843. Take profit: 1.1873. Stop Loss: 1.1831. If the deal opens and the price rebounds slightly up from 1.1843, but is pulled back down for a long time, showing no sign of buyer power, it is better to exit the deal at breakeven.”
Note how exactly and beautifully the price reversed at 1.1843. However, it stopped growing, pulled down, and therefore met our conditions to breakeven.
Generally, 1.1843 was the key level, and yesterday it was said: “If the price does not rise to 1.1840, it may fall to 1.1817”. And as a result it happened. But I did not give the signals for the shorts for this scenario, because they had to be tracked in the moment, while I wrote the post in the morning.
I decided to cheat a little myself and allowed myself a slightly different strategy, more dangerous. I did not close the shorts, and moreover, up to 1.1817 I opened longs, knowing that the price would turn up at the lower boundary of the local balance. Of course, this is not very good, when I will make a post in the next few days with review of all deals done in June, you will see that I did it only a couple of times, but the fact that I trade very small amounts on this account and the lot I used in this case was super small, I could afford it. Although, in this particular situation, where there is a global seller and pressure, of course it was very wrong to do so.
Now let’s move on to today.
Fixing the situation:
The price is still under pressure from the global seller. However, as it was said in the previous post, locally we are within the balance 1.1803–1.1970, and intraday we are within the balance 1.1803–1.1890. At the moment we work out the bottom line of these balances, and the question is, is the market ready to go out of the balance, or will it continue? I will not burden you with reasoning and conclusions that I made based on my system, and I will just offer some scenarios and signals accordingly.
Signals:
If 1.1823 is held and the price is fixed above it, then we move to 1.1850. Accordingly, you can buy at 1.1823 with the target of 1.1850. Although, it is better to close the long position a couple of points lower. By the way, I am counting on this scenario, since I am in the longs yesterday.)
If 1.1823 will not hold and the price starts to consolidate under it, then you can short this level and further at 1.1805, we have to see, if there will be some buying there. It is difficult for me to describe how to identify these purchases in two words now, so I suggest just to close one part of the deal right there and leave the other part, put the stop-loss on the breakeven level and wait for the target at 1.1778, or maybe even 1.1743.
It is dangerous to sell at 1.1850, but you can carefully try it with a short stop of 6–7 points and the target at 1.1830.
Sell: 1.1905 and 1.1922. Take profit: 1.1878. Stop loss: 1.1935
At 1.1743 and 1.1705 we buy. I do not think that today we will take such far levels, so I will not declare the objectives and stops. If we do take these levels, then only by the end of the day, and I will write the next post with instructions.
